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 Here are the rest of the last week's comments and the days that affected rates most lately....... Consumer Prices Up 0.1% in October... December 1 Consumer Confidence jumps higher, New Home Sales up 13%.... November 29 Market Drops on Home Sales Figures.... November 28 Holiday Week is uneventful.... November 22 9 weeks in a row with higher rates..... The week in review November 14 Time to Refinance that ARM?..... The week in review November 7 The Week in Review..... Highest Rates since 7/1/2004 October 24 PPI follows the lead of last week's CPI with highest reading in 25 years..... October 18 Greenspan worries about "exotic" mortgage instruments..... September 26 |
December 19 11:49 AM EST The next two weeks will likely see some swings in mortgage rates that have no direct relation to actual market conditions as investors buy and sell bonds in order to make all their balance sheets look pretty. If you are looking to lock in a rate in the next ten days, there will be good mortgage rate days and bad mortgage rate days, so stay in contact with your mortgage professional every day to make sure you do not miss anything. The changes will most likely be only 1/8% higher or lower than current rates, so do not be alarmed by this news, just take advantage of anything you can! The rest of the week doeshave a few economic reports which could affect rates as Tuesday we have Housing starts and the Producer Price Index reports, Thursday we will see the Leading Indicators which will be watched for any inflationary pressures and Friday brinds us consumer sentiment, new home sales and durable goods orders. The market will close early on friday for the holiday. Updated Forecasts 2006 forecasts coming! This continuing trend of higher and higher rates has caused me to change the rate lock advisory to lock for all four stages. In addition, I have updated my forecast to show rising rates for the second half of 2005. This is a combination of what we have seen in both the market and the economic reports over the last 3 months and the continued tendencies of the market to shoot higher of very little good news. Now, on the bright side, the global economy is still going nowhere. We have quite a quandary where if the market does not rise in response to continued increases by the Fed we could see an inverted rate curve due to the global pressures. This is still a very good possibility and should we see anything close to an inversion, rates could drop quickly. The very high number of mortgages that are ARM's vs Fixed rates would switch in a heartbeat if you can get a 30 year fixed at a lower rate than a 5 year ARM!! If this fine line were to get crossed, you can throw all the forecasts of higher rates right out the window. Where are rates headed in the next 3 months? It looks like the trend will be heading steady or higher with new projections out and the higher oil prices and Fed rate increases driving rates over the next 3 months Where are rates going this year? The entire first part of the year, I have been sticking with the experts position that for the year of 2005, we can expect to see mortgage rates to level out in the 6.5% to 6.75% range for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage by the end of the year. Although this forecast has been the same for the last 3 years and has yet to materialize, this long term forecast must be still taken into account. My personal expectations are that 30 year rates will be rising for the second half of 2005 barring any more terrorist attacks. If I were financing/refinancing a home . . . . I would Lock if my closing was within 10 days I would Lock if my closing was 11- 30 days away I would Lock if my closing was 31 - 45 days away I would Lock if my closing was more than 45 days away *As always, this commentary is only my personal opinion if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any/all other borrowers.
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