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 Here are the rest of the last week's comments and the days that affected rates most lately....... 9 weeks in a row with higher rates..... The week in review November 14 Time to Refinance that ARM?..... The week in review November 7 The Week in Review..... Highest Rates since 7/1/2004 October 24 PPI follows the lead of last week's CPI with highest reading in 25 years..... October 18 The Week in Review - The buzzword is Inflation.... October 9 Hold on to your Hats, rates will be going up..... October 3 Greenspan worries about "exotic" mortgage instruments..... September 26 |
Holiday Week is uneventful.... November 22 11:03 AM EST This week will be uneventful as many economic reports were either moved ahead and released last week or have been moved forward and will be realeased next week. In addition, many investors have headed off to their Thanksgiving preparations already leaving the market moving only slightly and certainly not enough, at this point, to move mortgage rates. The biggest news, and likely ony news of the week, will be the release of the minutes from the last Fed meeting this afternoon at 2 pm. Even so, these notes are not expected top carry any astounding news or revelations. Most of the information is already well known. Inflation is under control, but being watched. Unemployment is lower, but then there are not a lot of good paying jobs out there either. No surprises are expected so that everyone can enjoy a day with their family on Thursday and in the banking industry, that will continue on into friday as well. We will watch closely next week though as the preliminary spending numbers come in from the Black Friday sales as stores push as far into the black as they can. The Week Ahead With the Thanksgiving holiday on tap this week, we can expect a very slow and uneventful week on the mortgage market and lower rates as we head into that week is a good sign. When investors are nervous about rates rising while they are away on vacation, they will often pull their money out of the market rather than getting burned and taking money out of the market often results in higher mortgage rates from these actions. Have a great day..........Scott Updated Forecasts This continuing trend of higher and higher rates has caused me to change the rate lock advisory to lock for all four stages. In addition, I have updated my forecast to show rising rates for the second half of 2005. This is a combination of what we have seen in both the market and the economic reports over the last 3 months and the continued tendencies of the market to shoot higher of very little good news. Now, on the bright side, the global economy is still going nowhere. We have quite a quandary where if the market does not rise in response to continued increases by the Fed we could see an inverted rate curve due to the global pressures. This is still a very good possibility and should we see anything close to an inversion, rates could drop quickly. The very high number of mortgages that are ARM's vs Fixed rates would switch in a heartbeat if you can get a 30 year fixed at a lower rate than a 5 year ARM!! If this fine line were to get crossed, you can throw all the forecasts of higher rates right out the window. Where are rates headed in the next 3 months? It looks like the trend will be heading steady or higher with new projections out and the higher oil prices and Fed rate increases driving rates over the next 3 months Where are rates going this year? The entire first part of the year, I have been sticking with the experts position that for the year of 2005, we can expect to see mortgage rates to level out in the 6.5% to 6.75% range for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage by the end of the year. Although this forecast has been the same for the last 3 years and has yet to materialize, this long term forecast must be still taken into account. My personal expectations are that 30 year rates will be rising for the second half of 2005 barring any more terrorist attacks. If I were financing/refinancing a home . . . . I would Lock if my closing was within 10 days I would Lock if my closing was 11- 30 days away I would Lock if my closing was 31 - 45 days away I would Lock if my closing was more than 45 days away *As always, this commentary is only my personal opinion if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any/all other borrowers.
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